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Testing for dynamical dependence: application to the surface mass balance over Antarctica
Vannitsem, S.; Dalaiden, Q.; Goosse, H. (2019). Testing for dynamical dependence: application to the surface mass balance over Antarctica. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46(21): 12125-12135. https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084329
In: Geophysical Research Letters. American Geophysical Union: Washington. ISSN 0094-8276; e-ISSN 1944-8007, more
Dynamical dependence between key observables and the surface mass balance (SMB) over Antarctica is analyzed in two historical runs performed with the MPI-ESM-P and the CESM1-CAM5 climate models. The approach used is a novel method allowing for evaluating the rate of information transfer between observables that goes beyond the classical correlation analysis and allows for directional characterization of dependence. It reveals that a large proportion of significant correlations do not lead to dependence. In addition, three coherent results concerning the dependence of SMB emerge from the analysis of both models: (i) The SMB over the Antarctic Plateau is mostly influenced by the surface temperature and sea ice concentration and not by large-scale circulation changes; (ii) the SMB of the Weddell Sea and the Dronning Maud Land coasts are not influenced significantly by the surface temperature; and (iii) the Weddell Sea coast is not significantly influenced by the sea ice concentration.
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