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Sardine regime shifts off Portugal: a time series analysis of catches and wind conditions
Borges, M.F.; Santos, A.M.P.; Crato, N.; Mendes, H.; Mota, B. (2003). Sardine regime shifts off Portugal: a time series analysis of catches and wind conditions. Sci. Mar. (Barc.) 67(S1): 235-244. https://dx.doi.org/10.3989/scimar.2003.67s1235
In: Scientia Marina (Barcelona). Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas. Institut de Ciènces del Mar: Barcelona. ISSN 0214-8358; e-ISSN 1886-8134, more
Also appears in:
Ulltang, Ø.; Blom, G. (2003). Fish stock assessments and predictions: integrating relevant knowledge. SAP Symposium held in Bergen, Norway 4-6 December 2000. Scientia Marina (Barcelona), 67(S1). Institut de Ciències de Mar: Barcelona. 374 pp. https://dx.doi.org/10.3989/scimar.2003.67s1, more
Peer reviewed article  
Available in  Authors 
Keywords
    Analysis > Mathematical analysis > Statistical analysis > Time series analysis
    Catchability
    Chordata > Vertebrates > Fishes > Osteichthyes > Clupeiformes > Marine fishes > Sardines
    Motion > Atmospheric motion > Winds
    Motion > Water motion > Vertical water movement > Upwelling > Coastal upwelling
    Population functions > Recruitment
    Sardines
    Time series
    Sardina pilchardus (Walbaum, 1792) [WoRMS]
    Portugal [Marine Regions]
    Marine/Coastal
Authors  Top 
  • Borges, M.F.
  • Santos, A.M.P.
  • Crato, N.
  • Mendes, H.
  • Mota, B.
Abstract
    Decadal changes have been observed in the annual catch of sardine (Sardina pilchardus W). Long-term changes have also been observed in alongshore winds off Portugal in the last decades in winter months. During sardine spawning season (winter), northerly winds that favour upwelling led to unfavourable conditions for egg and larval survival. By using time series analysis, we investigated the effect of wind conditions and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the sardine catches, in the period from 1946-1991. We also investigated the time lag between recruitment strength and its turnout in catches. We concluded that recruitment is forced to a lower level when the frequency and intensity of northerly wind exceeds a certain limit in winter. Our time series retrospective analyses led to evidence of climatic driven regime-shifts in West Portugal sardine productivity in late 1960s-early 1970s. These results are discussed in terms of their implications in fisheries management plans.
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