Ice sheets and sea level change as a response to climatic change at the astronomical time scale
Berger, A.; Fichefet, T.; Gallée, H.; Marsiat, I.; Tricot, Ch.; van Ypersele, J.P. (1990). Ice sheets and sea level change as a response to climatic change at the astronomical time scale, in: Paepe, R. et al. Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level and Drought. Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Geohydrological Management of Sea Level and Mitigation of Drought, Fuerteventura, Canary Islands (Spain), March 1-7, 1989. NATO ASI Series C: Mathematical and Physical Sciences, 325: pp. 85-107. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-0701-0_5
In: Paepe, R. et al. (Ed.) (1990). Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level and Drought. Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Geohydrological Management of Sea Level and Mitigation of Drought, Fuerteventura, Canary Islands (Spain), March 1-7, 1989. Digitized reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1990. NATO ASI Series C: Mathematical and Physical Sciences, 325. Kluwer Academic Publishers: Dordrecht. ISBN 978-94-009-0701-0. xix, 718 pp. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-0701-0, more
In: NATO ASI Series C: Mathematical and Physical Sciences. D. Reidel: Dordrecht; Boston; Lancaster. ISSN 0258-2023, more
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Document type: Conference paper
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- Marsiat, I.
- Tricot, Ch.
- van Ypersele, J.P., more
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| Abstract |
Understanding how and why global climate is changing is investigated at the astronomical time scale related to the glacial-interglacial cycles of the Quaternary Ice Age.A 2-dimensional physical model taking into account the coupling between the atmosphere, the upper ocean, the sea-ice, the ice-sheets and the continental surfaces has been forced by the long-term variations of the insolation induced by the astronomical changes in the elements of the Earth’s orbit. The low frequency part of the ice volume and sea-level changes have been correctly reproduced in agreement with the deep sea and ice cores records and with the climatic reconstructions made from multiple geological observations. However, after 6 kyr BP, the remaining ice volume of the Greenland and northern American ice sheets is overestimated in the simulation, probably because of the absence of an interactive carbon cycle providing a time-dependent atmospheric CO2 concentration.Extrapolation has been made for the next 100,000 years assuming no human interference at this time scale: the next ice age is expected to occur before 60,000 years AP, the cooling rate between now and then being roughly 0.01 °C per century. The maximum amount of ice to be expected in the northern hemisphere is 27*106 km3 representing a 70 m sea-level drop in 55,000 years, i.e. slightly more than 12 cm per century in average. |
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