Simulation-based catastrophe-induced port loss estimation
In: Reliability Engineering & System Safety. Elsevier SCI Ltd: Oxford. ISSN 0951-8320; e-ISSN 1879-0836, more
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Catastrophe risk; Port; Worst-case scenario; Vulnerability; Container terminal loss estimation; Simulation |
| Authors | | Top |
- Cao, X.
- Lam, J.S.L., more
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| Abstract |
Seaports are critical infrastructure systems in the international economy. They are at the same time vulnerable to various types of natural and man-made catastrophes due to their special coastal and low-lying locations. Traditional catastrophe risk analyses focused more on regions, port cities, and port communities. Limited studies assessed catastrophe risks on ports as a specific system. This paper aims to develop a catastrophe-induced port loss estimation framework, based on a port operation simulation model, actual terminal records and historical hazard records. By using the typhoon hazard and the Port of Shenzhen as a case study, we find that (1) the worst-case scenario of a typhoon impact could cause a total loss of US$0.91 billion for a terminal with 16 berths; and (2) the annual predicted typhoon-induced loss for the same terminal for the next 5 years will reach approximately US$64 million, accounting for 19.7% of the terminal net profit in 2015. The results provide useful references for various port stakeholders in catastrophe risk assessment and mitigation. |
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