Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world
de Winter, N.J.; Tindall, J.; Johnson, A.L.A.; Goudsmit-Harzevoort, B.; Wichern, N.; Kaskes, P.; Claeys, P.; Huygen, F.; van Leeuwen, S.; Metcalfe, B.; Bakker, P.; Goolaerts, S.; Wesselingh, F.P.; Ziegler, M. (2024). Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world. Science Advances 10(20): eadl6717. https://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl6717
In: Science Advances. AAAS: New York. e-ISSN 2375-2548, more
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| Authors | | Top |
- de Winter, N.J., more
- Tindall, J.
- Johnson, A.L.A.
- Goudsmit-Harzevoort, B.
- Wichern, N.
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- Kaskes, P., more
- Claeys, P., more
- Huygen, F.
- van Leeuwen, S., more
- Metcalfe, B.
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- Bakker, P.
- Goolaerts, S., more
- Wesselingh, F.P., more
- Ziegler, M.
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| Abstract |
Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe’s future. |
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