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The timing of decreasing coastal flood protection due to sea-level rise
Hermans, T.H.J.; Malagon Santos, V.; Katsman, C.A.; Jane, R.A.; Rasmussen, D.J.; Haasnoot, M.; Garner, G.G.; Kopp, R.E.; Oppenheimer, M.; Slangen, A.B.A. (2023). The timing of decreasing coastal flood protection due to sea-level rise. Nat. Clim. Chang. 13(4): 359-366. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01616-5
In: Nature Climate Change. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 1758-678X; e-ISSN 1758-6798, more
Related to:
Johnson, D.R. (2023). Defence against the rising seas. Nat. Clim. Chang. 13(4): 313-314. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01645-0, more
Peer reviewed article  

Available in  Authors 

Keyword
    Marine/Coastal

Authors  Top 
  • Hermans, T.H.J., more
  • Malagon Santos, V., more
  • Katsman, C.A.
  • Jane, R.A.
  • Rasmussen, D.J.
  • Haasnoot, M.
  • Garner, G.G.
  • Kopp, R.E.
  • Oppenheimer, M.
  • Slangen, A.B.A., more

Abstract
    Sea-level rise amplifies the frequency of extreme sea levels by raising their baseline height. Amplifications are often projected for arbitrary future years and benchmark frequencies. Consequently, such projections do not indicate when flood risk thresholds may be crossed given the current degree of local coastal protection. To better support adaptation planning and comparative vulnerability analyses, we project the timing of the frequency amplification of extreme sea levels relative to estimated local flood protection standards, using sea-level rise projections of IPCC AR6 until 2150. Our central estimates indicate that those degrees of protection will be exceeded ten times as frequently within the next 30 years (the lead time that large adaptation measures may take) at 26% and 32% of the tide gauges considered, and annually at 4% and 8%, for a low- and high-emissions scenario, respectively. Adaptation planners may use our framework to assess the available lead time and useful lifetime of protective infrastructure.

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